Progressive betting in blackjack, or any other casino game, is one of the most sure ways to lose all of your money. The betting strategy is simple, and that’s what often attracts people to it. You just keep doubling your bet every time you lose until you finally win a hand. After all, even on a terrible losing streak you’ll win a hand eventually, right? Well, in theory this sounds logical, but in reality progressive betting systems will lead to huge losses over time.
I am going to show you an example below on why they don’t work whether you are playing at a local casino or online against a live blackjack dealer.
Progressive Betting Systems – Why Don’t They Work?
Contents
There are several pitfalls that you will eventually hit if you’re using a strategy based on progressive betting. First of all, at some point you might run out of money and not be able to afford doubling your bet after a loss. Here’s how things will look if you lose 7 hands in a row starting at $25…
Bet #1: $25 (total loss = $25)
Bet #2: $50 (total loss = $75)
Bet #3: $100 (total loss = $175)
Bet #4: $200 (total loss = $375)
Bet #5: $400 (total loss = $775)
Bet #6: $800 (total loss = $1,575)
Bet #7: $1,600 (total loss = $3,175)
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Progressive Blackjack is definitely among the most entertaining and exciting variations of the classic blackjack game due to the fact that it provides gamblers with the chance to win in a new way. In fact, this blackjack variant has become so well-liked as it comes with a progressive jackpot that can build up really fast. Progressive Betting is a betting system designed to capitalize on something which is manifested on almost any given night at the Blackjack table - Streaks. Using a Progressive Betting system will win you some big dollars when the play is streaky. There are many different betting systems used by Blackjack players throughout the world. Progressive Blackjack is a standard version of Blackjack that has an optional side bet, usually costing £1/€1/$1 depending on the currency you are using. Progressive blackjack is one of the most wide-spread versions of the game. It does not differ a lot from traditional blackjack, though there are some points that should be taken into account before you play. Just like the traditional game, progressive blackjack is a game between a player and a dealer. Positive Progressive Betting Systems – Definition and Popular Variants Positive progressive betting systems are designed to get the most of the players’ winning streak, commanding a bet increase every.
Problem A
At this point you’re down $3,175 and you now need to bet $3,200. Can you afford that? How about if you lose an 8th hand in a row… Can you afford to be down $6,375 and then bet another $6,400? Even if you think you can afford it, when you finally win a hand you will be up a whopping $25 for all your work and emotional stress. Will you lose 7 or 8 hands in a row? Maybe not in the first hour of play, but there is no question that at some point you will lose more than 8 hands in a row no matter how good of a player you are.
Problem B
Looking at the above example, you can probably guess what the next problem with progressive betting is. Even if you have an unlimited bankroll, at some point you will hit the table maximum bet and will not be allowed to raise your bet further. Most Indian casinos will usually have a $500 or $1,000 table maximum. Many high limit rooms in Las Vegas only go up to $5,000. Even the high end properties in Vegas such as Wynn, Bellagio and Aria will only go up to $10,000 on their blackjack tables.
Problem C
Other factors involved in blackjack progressive betting are the player options of doubling and splitting. If you ignore these options the house edge against you will increase. If you use these options, as you should, you could end up with 2X or 3X your bet on the table. I’ve had pairs split into four separate hands and have needed to double all four of them. That meant I had 8X my original bet on the table. If the dealer busts and I win, that’s great, but if the dealer pulls a 21 and I lose all of my hands, that’s a tough pill to swallow. Now imagine you’re about five losses deep (down $775 and betting $800) into your progressive betting system and you’re dealt 8,8. The dealer shows a 6, so you split. Another 8 comes to you, so you split again. Now you get two face cards and a 3 to match your 8s. You stand on your 18s and double the 8,3. You get a low card on your double and the dealer turns the 6 into an easy 19. After all, a a dealer’s 6 only busts about 42% of the time. In this scenario you lose $800 X 4… That’s $3,200 in one shot! Now you’re down $3,200 + $775 and need to bet $4,000 just to make that original $25 in profit. Lose another hand and you’re at the table max without an opportunity to recoup your losses. It’s over and you only lost six hands in a row. Ouch!
The shortcomings of progressive betting apply to all casino games. Roulette, craps, baccarat, sportsbetting… you name it, progressive betting will guarantee you lose at it. Not even card counting is able to avoid the ultimate collapse of such a flawed system. You might win for a day or two and gain false confidence, but when the reality of progressive betting hits you it gets ugly quick. With one losing streak you will lose what you gained over the previous sessions and more!
Learn from the Mistakes of Others
The bottom line – DO NOT USE A PROGRESSIVE BETTING SYSTEM! Many uneducated gamblers will try to mask the fact that their progressive betting system loses by adding little twists and tweaks. It has been proven over and over again that you will still lose if your strategy is based on a progression. Don’t sell yourself short, learn something useful that actually works and holds a long-run advantage. Take the time to learn about blackjack and card counting (not just counting +1 and -1, but everything that goes into being successful at counting cards), and you’ll maintain a long term advantage over the casinos.
One of the most often asked questions from players about blackjack strategy, is 'how should I bet?' You've got severaloptions and I'll discuss them in this article and offer my recommendation.
Flat Bet Blackjack Strategy
This means betting the same amount all the time. Most players don't like to bet this way because they figure if the dealer wins more hands then them they'll never win any money. Also, playersfeel it's boring betting this way. They prefer the thrill of sometimes betting more in the hopes that when they do so, they will win the hand and make a nice profit.
Here are the facts on the flat betting blackjack strategy. If you bet say $5 on every hand in a standard multiple deck game the house will have an edge of 0.5% against theskilled basic strategy player. That means you will lose on average 0.5% of every wager you make. So if you bet $10 on every hand and average 80 hands per hour you will have made a total of $800worth of bets. The casino expects to earn 0.5% of the $800 or $4.00. Of course, the more likely result is that you'll win or lose much more than $4 after an hour of play. But on average you canexpect over time to lose at the rate of $4 per hour.
Progressive Blackjack
Let's take an example of a player flat betting $10 on every hand. It's is a conservative betting strategy that leads to a relatively low theoretical loss rate. The fluctuation in this player'sbankroll will also be low which means the likelihood he'll have a big winning or losing session is not great.
Watch 'Why You Should Never Make the Blackjack Insurance Bet with Blackjack Expert Henry Tamburin' (March 2016)
In this video blackjack expert Henry Tamburin explains why a basic strategy player should never make an insurance bet. He gives details on three different situations that a player may encounterand why he considers blackjack insurance to always be a sucker bet.
Progressive Betting Blackjack Strategy
This is where things get interesting. The Progressive betting blackjack strategy is when players vary their bets in some way from one hand to the next rather than alwaysbetting the same amount on every hand. There are all different types of betting progressions but they all have one common denominator. You either decrease or increase your next bet dependingupon whether the hand you just played won or lose.
Win progressions encourage you to increase your bet size after a winning hand. For example, you make a minimum bet of $10 and if you win, you raise your next stakes on the hand to $20.
There are all different kinds of win progressions. The most common is a 1-2-3-5 progression. This means you increase your bet by the above multiples after each winning hand butas soon as you experience a loss, you start the progression over with a 1 unit bet.
Proponents of win progressions will tell you that you'll win more money if you win 5 consecutive hands compared to the amount you lose if you lose 5 consecutive hands. Of course, what theydon't tell you is that you never know when that 5 consecutive winning hand streak will occur.
There are also betting progressions in which you increase your bet following a loss. These Martingale type betting progressions are dangerous and you should never consider using them.
There are also hybrid betting progressions, which have you increase your bets following a win, but after two or three success wins you lock up some profit and gradually regress your bets. Thecreativity of progressive bettors is never-ending.
First of all, the blackjack strategy for betting progressions does not change the 0.5% house edge one iota. There has never been a correlation between the hand just won (orlost) and your chance of winning the next hand. In other words, using the criteria of the result of one hand (W/L) to base how you bet on the next hand has no scientific validity. So bettingprogressions, in the long run, don't work in the sense that they won't improve your long-term chances of winning.
But here's what betting progressions will do. First off they increase the fluctuation in your session bankroll compared to flat betting. This means you can win more using abetting progression compared to flat betting but you can also lose more. Secondly, betting progressions will increase the amount of money you wager per hour compared to flat betting. If a $10bettor uses a 1-2-3-5 betting progression, his average bet will $20. Over an hour he will average $20 times 80 hands or $1600 worth of bets. The casino's expected win is 0.5% of $1600 or $8. Inother words, a $10 progressive bettor stands to lose twice as much per hour as a $10 flat bettor.
Here's a tip to save you some money in the long run if you insist on using a betting progression. Instead of starting your progression at $10, start at a lower amount (ie. $5). This will reduceyour average bet to $10 per hour and cut your hourly theoretical loss rate in half.
But in the long run flat betting and betting progressions don't work in the sense they won't change the house edge against you and you will lose in the long run. So what betting system works?That, my friends, is card counting.
Betting When You Have The Edge (Card Counting)
With card counting, you know when you have the edge based on the change in the composition of the decks and therefore you'll know when it's the right time to bet more. Sounlike betting progressions that are based on whether you win or lose the previous hands, card counting is based on the mix of cards that were played on previous hands. If more small valuecards were played in previous rounds, there are more big value cards left in the unplayed cards, and the edge shifts from dealer to the player. This would be the best time to bet more.
But I'm a realist. Not a whole lot of average blackjack players have the time or mental concentration during play that is required to master one of the popular point count cardcounting systems. These are readily available in blackjack books. But even though millions of blackjack books have been sold since Ed Thorp's classic book, Beat The Dealer (circa 1962) firstrevealed card counting to the masses, the number of players who can successfully win money in the long run at blackjack number in the hundreds and thousands.
So what's the answer to betting at blackjack for the average player? I asked Don Pronovost that same question about four years ago. Don is a software developer that markets blackjack trainingsoftware. He spent the better part of two years and a trillion computer simulated hands looking for the solution to this dilemma. What he developed is Speed Count.
Speed Count is unlike any conventional card counting system. It's much simpler to master and requires much less concentration when you play. And unlike progressive betting systems, Speed Countwill give you a verifiable advantage over the casino You can read about Speed Count in Frank Scoblete’s book, Golden Touch Blackjack Revolution.
Now that you know the scoop on betting at blackjack, I wish you many aces and faces the next time you play.
Progressive Blackjack Side Bet
Henry Tamburin has been a respected casino gambling writer for the past 50 years. He is the author of theUltimate Blackjack Strategy Guide and was editor of theBlackjack Insider newsletter. You can read his latest articles on blackjack, video poker, and his personal playing experiences at https://www.888casino.com/blog/writers/henry-tamburin
Progressive Blackjack Betting Strategy
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